Madden-Julian Conversation

 

I just stumbled on this new blog over at realclimate.org called the “Madden-Julian Conversation”. They have a series of very nice tutorial posts speaking about atmospheric modes of variability, including large-scale patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Monsson and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It is an excellent introduction to understanding the regularity and chaos of our changing climate. 

What is the MJO? Part 1

What is the MJO? Part 2

What is the MJO? Part 3 - on modes of variability, and space and time scales

What is the MJO? Part 4 - more background on modes of variability

What is the MJO? Part 5 - interannual and intraseasonal, prediction, beating chaos

Reduced emissions of ozone depleting substances will mitigate global warming

An interesting new study was presented at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Fransisco in December 2010: It was shown that controlling emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) within the Montreal Protocol and its amendments to prevent thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer, will have significant beneficial side-effects on climate change. It is projected that global warming could be reduced by as much as 1.5 degrees by 2070, compared to a scenario in which CFCs would have been allowed to increase unabated.    

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Merchants of Doubt is a new book by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway describing how the influential Marshall Institute in Washington, D.C., has run effective campaigns spreading doubt and confusion about climate change in an attempt to discredit the scientific consensus put forward by the IPCC. The book makes the interesting point that such climate change deniers are not, as often quoted, primarily motivated by financial incentives (e.g. it is often said that global warming skeptics are paid by the oil industry to prevent any regulations on the lucrative oiling business). Instead, the authors claim that the motivation at its core is ideological—these conservative scientist view any government regulation as a step towards socialism and communism. In essence, after the end of the cold war these contrarians turned to new enemies, working hard to prevent any government interventions against tobacco smoking and actions to address environmental issues, including acid rain, the ozone hole, and most lately climate change. I think this is a very important point to remember in the current debate.

If you don’t have time to read the book, this short radio interview by the Australian ABC sums it up pretty well.

These presentations are also well worth a watch:

The American Denial of Global Warming

Answering Climate Change Skeptics

The most interesting point made at the “Climate Reality” event tonight came from Jim Hansen of NASA: Climate change may have to be resolved, not on the political stage (governments are either unwilling or unable to take the necessary actions) but through the legal system. Why? Well, climate change is a moral issue in that involves inter-generational in-justice—the generation currently at power is endangering the future environment and in doing so depriving the younger generation of access to healthy future lives. So, much like the legislative system in the US once provided racial equality to minorities, the same legislation could be applicable to in-justice between generations. An interesting idea, that obviously is only applicable to the US, but if the they would take a path of a more sustainable society, other countries would most likely follow suit.
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The most interesting point made at the “Climate Reality” event tonight came from Jim Hansen of NASA: Climate change may have to be resolved, not on the political stage (governments are either unwilling or unable to take the necessary actions) but through the legal system. Why? Well, climate change is a moral issue in that involves inter-generational in-justice—the generation currently at power is endangering the future environment and in doing so depriving the younger generation of access to healthy future lives. So, much like the legislative system in the US once provided racial equality to minorities, the same legislation could be applicable to in-justice between generations. An interesting idea, that obviously is only applicable to the US, but if the they would take a path of a more sustainable society, other countries would most likely follow suit.

Hej Jonas

Jag kan till viss del förstå din skepsis till klimathotet som det ibland utmålas eftersom jag också kan uppleva att media ofta överdriver hotet från klimatförändringar, precis som de tenderar att blåsa upp även andra nyheter (notera dock att jag inte läst DN artikeln), men att rada upp en hel lista med argument i kritik mot IPCC processen och dess slutsatser helt utan belägg (läs: utan referenser till publikationer i vetenskaplig litteratur) framstår som oprofessionellt. Internet flödar över av texter av mer eller mindre konspiratoriskt material (vem som helst kan numera tycka till på sin egen blogg!). Teorier som du nämner (t.ex. den om länken mellan kosmisk strålning och molnbildning) är ofta intressanta hypoteser, och kan verka troliga för ett otränat öga, saknar i många fall vetenskapliga belägg, eller bygger på utdatared litteratur.

Web-sidan www.realclimate.org ger svar på frågor angående många av de missuppfattningar du ger uttryck för. Detta är en mycket bättre källa till kritiskt granskad information än t.ex Per Welanders blogg.

Jag har följt dina analyser på Morningstar i många år och alltid uppskattat din skarpa penna och förnuftiga resonemang, så jag är något förvånade över denna krönika. Vore det inte bättre om Morningstar höll sig till att publicera material av den typ som Morningstar kan bäst, dvs ekonomisk analys? Din kritik mot medias ibland snedvridna bild må vara berättigad, men fysiklektionerna kunde du kanske utelämnat åt kunnigare skribenter.

Med vänlig hälsning,

Andreas Jonsson

I just created this microblog to post an e-mail I sent to the generally brilliant economics analyst Jonas Lindmark at morningstar.se regarding a surprisingly misinformed post of his about the reality of climate change. Jonas’ post is in Swedish, and so is my reply.